Definition
A tool from CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) Group (owner of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange) that turns futures prices into the market's odds of the Fed's next rate move.
The story
Before the CPI (Consumer Price Index) report on Oct 14, 2026, FedWatch put the odds of a hike at that month's meeting at about 22%. After core inflation came in hot, they jumped to about 52% (Reuters). One report, and the market's bet on the Fed more than doubled in a morning.
Why markets watch it
It's the clearest single read on what markets expect the Fed to do.
See it in the story
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Last seen in
We explain why it moves markets. What you do with it is your call. Commentary and education only. Not financial advice. All terms