Definition
How far a report's actual number landed from the consensus forecast.
The story
On Sep 4, 2026, economists expected 56,000 new jobs (Reuters poll). The report showed 162,000. That's a surprise of 106,000 jobs, and it's why the same report can be "good news" one month and a shock the next, even with similar numbers.
Why markets watch it
It's what the first market reaction responds to.
See it in the story
Connects to
Last seen in
We explain why it moves markets. What you do with it is your call. Commentary and education only. Not financial advice. All terms