Definition
The Fed's target of 2% yearly inflation over time, measured with the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index.
The story
In September 2026, PCE inflation was running at 3.6% from a year earlier (Bureau of Economic Analysis, released Oct 29). That's 1.6 points above the goal, and the distance between those two numbers is what every Fed decision this year has been about.
Why markets watch it
Inflation far above 2% tends to push the Fed toward higher rates; below it, toward lower.
IN HISTORICAL DATA
Latest PCE inflation: Thu, Oct 29, 2026
- Actual vs forecast
- Core +0.3% m/m vs not confirmed
- S&P 500
- -0.3%
- Nasdaq
- -1.4%
- Gold
- Spot -1.03% to $4,025.24
History, not a prediction. Every row lists its sources.
All PCE inflation →Connects to
Last seen in
We explain why it moves markets. What you do with it is your call. Commentary and education only. Not financial advice. All terms