Asia Open, revisited: the BOJ was the event, Intel was the story | Revisited, Sunday, November 1, 2026

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As published October 29, 2026 · 6:39 PM CT · unedited

Asia Open: It's BOJ night. Amazon and Intel slid after hours, and the Bank of Japan decides tonight. Here's what I'm watching.

What I'm watching tonight (CT). This evening: Tokyo October CPI. Japan's core inflation just moved back above 2%. ~10 PM to midnight: Bank of Japan decision, plus its quarterly Outlook Report. It's expected to hold at 1.25% while hinting at a December hike. The BOJ sets no exact release time. ~1:30 AM: Governor Ueda's press conference. Watch how often he says "December." That's what matters to the yen, and through it to NQ and gold. All night: Nasdaq futures digesting the Amazon and Intel after-hours drops, plus oil headlines on Iran.

US session recap. Closes: S&P 500 -0.30% at 7,720.39. Nasdaq -1.38% at 26,184.73. Dow -0.25%. Why tech fell: Alphabet dropped about 13% after its Q3 sales came up short and investors worried about free cash flow and returns on AI spending. ServiceNow (-25%) and Fortinet (-21%) also pulled software and chip stocks lower. Money moved into healthcare, financials and real estate.

After-hours earnings. Amazon fell as much as 10%. It missed on revenue ($201.9B) and EPS ($1.89), kept 2026 capex at $220B, and AWS grew 39%. Intel fell as much as 20%+ before paring. Its Q4 revenue guide of $15–16B was below the roughly $17B analysts expected. Rivian rose after beating estimates and raising guidance.

Macro. Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualized (3.1% expected). September PCE was 3.6% y/y (core 3.1%). The Fed held Wednesday with two dissents favoring a hike, and a December hike is now the market's base case. CME data cited by Yahoo Finance put the odds of a hike by year-end at 85.6%. The 10-year yield is about 4.99%. Gold: about $4,037.90 (-0.34%). It opened higher but faded after the Fed, as hike bets and Middle East energy risk offset each other.

Correction (Nov 4, 4:40 PM CT): This copy of the October 29 post is unedited, and it gave the Q3 GDP forecast as "3.1% expected" without naming a source. Economists polled by Reuters expected 3.2%. The original wording is left as published.

Before London. Eurostat lists its Q3 euro-zone GDP flash for Friday, Oct 30. It usually publishes around 5:00 AM CT.

Sources: Yahoo Finance live blog, TheStreet and Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Yahoo Finance gold prices, Reuters (via AOL) on the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Japan meeting schedule, Eurostat release calendar. BOJ and Tokyo CPI times are approximate. Commentary and education only. Not financial advice.

(Left out of this copy: one section on personal trading, and Substack's subscribe prompt. Nothing else has been changed.)

Looking backwritten November 1, 2026, with hindsight

What actually happened

Tokyo CPI: core inflation in Tokyo rose 2.6% from a year earlier in October, in line with expectations and down from 2.7% in September.
The BOJ: held at 1.25% in an 8–1 vote; board member Hajime Takata dissented in favor of 1.5%. It raised its inflation forecasts, said underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, and sped up its ETF sales.
The yen: the dollar fell against the yen after the decision, then pared those losses.
NQ the next day: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86% on October 30, its largest one-day drop since June 5, as Intel fell 28.6%. Amazon, after falling as much as 10% after hours, closed down 1.41%.
Gold: spot gold fell 3.5% to about $3,880 on October 30, breaking below $4,000 to its lowest level in about a year.

Why it moved

The BOJ delivered roughly what the Brief described: a hold with a hawkish tilt. the BOJ may move to hikes every three months, which makes December a credible opportunity^{Kazutaka Maeda, Meiji Yasuda Research Institute}. a "boring hold" with an important shift in the outlook^{Masahiko Loo, State Street Investment Management}.

But the yen was not what moved NQ and gold. NQ was driven by the AI-spending selloff that the Amazon and Intel results deepened, and gold by rising bets on a Fed hike. Kitco reported that high oil prices tied to the war with Iran, and a 3.4% GDP print, kept markets expecting a Fed hike in December. gold will keep struggling while oil stays high^{Philip Streible, Blue Line Futures}.

What we learned

What the Brief saw: a hold with a December hint from the BOJ, and Nasdaq futures still digesting Amazon and Intel. Both were right.
What it weighed wrong: it pointed to the yen as the channel to NQ and gold. Overnight, US earnings and Fed expectations mattered far more than Tokyo.
After-hours moves can grow or fade: Intel's after-hours drop of 20%+ deepened to 28.6% the next day, while Amazon's 10% drop shrank to 1.41%. An after-hours number is a starting point, not a verdict.

The short version (the what and the result)

The BOJ held at 1.25% with a hawkish tilt; Tokyo inflation came in as expected.
The next day, the Nasdaq fell 2.86% and Intel fell 28.6%.
Gold dropped 3.5% to about $3,880 on Fed hike bets and high oil.