Nasdaq futures bounce 1.4% after the worst day since April 2025, with the October jobs report at 7:30 AM CT

The one thing that matters today

The October jobs report is due at 7:30 AM CT. A Reuters poll expects payrolls of +65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.2% and average hourly earnings of +0.3% for the month. It arrives one day after the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite fell about 5.5%, Wall Street's worst day since April 2025. Traders still price a better-than-65% chance that the Fed raises rates in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool as reported by Reuters.

Our read

Thursday was mostly a policy scare, not an earnings scare: the market started pricing the risk that politics, not demand, slows the AI data-center buildout, and that's a harder risk to model than a missed quarter. This morning's bounce is concentrated in the chip names that fell hardest, so it reads as a relief move, not a verdict. The jobs report matters through a different door. With a December hike mostly priced and the payroll breakeven now only about 40,000 a month, a number that looks small can still count as a healthy labor market, and the wage line probably matters more than the headline.

Before (overnight)

Thursday's damage. The Dow fell 1,833 points, or 3.44%, to 51,523.06. The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite about 5.5%, closing in correction territory. The Nasdaq 100 lost 6.36%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index sank 12.25% to 9,011.14. Nvidia had its biggest one-day fall since January 2025, according to Reuters. Reuters said the drivers were fears that the new Democratic-controlled Congress could bring tougher AI rules, and concern that data-center buildout could slow in key states. Qualcomm also missed estimates for fourth-quarter smartphone chip sales.

• Called the selloff a case of "shooting the generals," tying it to hedge funds locking in 2026 gains before year-end.^{Charlie McElligott, Nomura}
• Said investors were reacting to growing "headline" risks around AI.^{Adam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge}
• Called the election outcome "a seismic shift that will have a negative impact on the pace of the AI Revolution buildout."^{Dan Ives, Yorkville}
• Retail investors sold a net $358 million of individual stocks, their biggest selling day since 2020, per Vanda Research.

Asia. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 6.0% to 57,434.77, dropping below 60,000 for the first time in nearly half a year, with SoftBank Group and Advantest among the biggest losers. South Korea's Kospi fell 6.0% to 5,059.69 as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.3%, the Shanghai Composite 1.1% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 0.5%. The AP tied the losses to the AI selloff on Wall Street.

Europe. The STOXX 600 fell 1% by 0919 GMT, erasing its gain for the week. Reuters reported media, healthcare and personal goods down more than 2%, and Teleperformance down 18% after cutting its revenue outlook, while clean energy and airlines rose. Germany's DAX was down 1.5%, the FTSE 100 1.4% and France's CAC 40 1.1% in early trading, per the AP.

• Said falling portfolios "act as a real drag on consumer sentiment," and expects volatility to persist until at least January.^{Susannah Streeter, Wealth Club}

Bank of England. The Bank of England raised its rate to 4% on Thursday, its first increase in more than three years. Governor Andrew Bailey said the hike shouldn't be seen as the first in an "inevitably long sequence," but that it doesn't seem likely to be the last unless the Iran war is resolved.

US futures this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.43% at 27,135.25. S&P 500 futures were up 0.29% at 7,404.50. Dow futures were down 0.9% at 51,150. Those are Yahoo Finance quotes as of about 5:37 AM CT; Reuters had a similar split at 3:14 AM CT. Nvidia was up 3.6% premarket, and AMD, Intel, Broadcom and Micron were up 5% to 8.3%. Airbnb rose 12.1% after raising its 2026 revenue growth forecast. Atlassian fell 15.6% after its first-quarter results.

• "We view Thursday's selloff as reactionary, not a fundamental reset."^{Jane Gibbons, Jefferies}

Gold, oil, rates. Gold futures were down about 0.8% to 0.9%, near $4,075–$4,080, per Yahoo Finance quotes, after spot gold rose 0.64% on Thursday. Kitco said Thursday's gains came as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.82%, its lowest since early September. Brent crude was down 0.93% at $97.38, and US crude down 0.99% at $89.62, per the AP. The VIX was at 26.07 on Friday after its biggest one-day jump in about 19 months on Thursday, per Reuters.

The calendar

September payrolls rose 29,000, held down by a calendar quirk tied to a late Labor Day, according to Reuters. Annual wage growth is expected at 2.9%, which Reuters said would be the first reading below 3% since May 2021. October CPI is due on Tuesday.

What's priced in

• The CME FedWatch Tool shows a more than 65% chance of a December rate hike, Reuters reported this morning. Kitco put futures-implied odds at about 66%–69% on Thursday, down from about 83% on Wednesday.
• The Fed held its rate at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct. 28 and said inflation "remains elevated."
• Reuters estimates the payroll breakeven at about 40,000 jobs a month, down from about 150,000 in 2024 because of a smaller labor force, with employment averaging 68,000 a month this year.
• Thursday's data showed initial jobless claims at 189,000, third-quarter productivity up 3.6% and unit labor costs down 0.7%, per Kitco.
• Said the jobs market "isn't generating wage growth in any meaningful way."^{James Knightley, ING}
• Described the economy as shifting toward a "job-light expansion."^{Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon}
• Called the labor market "not too hot, not too cold."^{Stephen Stanley, Santander US Capital Markets}

What could move NQ, ES and gold (general tendencies, not predictions)

• Jobs and wages above forecast tend to push Treasury yields and rate-hike odds higher. That has usually been a headwind for long-duration tech and for gold, which pays no interest.
• A softer report, especially on wages, tends to do the reverse: lower yields have tended to support gold and take some pressure off growth stocks.
• On days after very large drops, volatility tends to stay high in both directions, and early moves are often revised once the cash session opens.
• Any fresh headlines on AI or data-center policy from Washington can outweigh the data for chips, since that's the risk the market started pricing on Thursday.

What we're watching

• Whether the bounce widens beyond chips, or stays limited to the names that fell most.
• Average hourly earnings versus the 0.3% forecast, and whether the yearly rate drops below 3%.
• How December hike odds on CME FedWatch shift after 7:30 AM CT.
• Oil near $97 Brent, which keeps energy inflation in the Fed's picture.
• October CPI on Tuesday, the next big release before the December 9 Fed decision.

Sources

• Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq futures rise after steep AI selloff as chip stocks stabilize
• Yahoo Finance: Stock market today, Friday Nov. 6: futures wobble after brutal sell-off, with key jobs report on deck
• Yahoo Finance: Stock market today, Thursday Nov. 5: Dow plunges 1,800 points, Nasdaq enters correction
• Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq posts biggest daily drop in 19 months
• Reuters via Regional Media News: US job growth expected to pick up in October, with moderation in wage gains
• Reuters via WHTC: US weekly jobless claims at 57-year lows amid low layoffs
• Reuters via Investing.com: Asia stocks crumble after AI rout rocks US markets
• AP via Union-Bulletin: Global shares skid after AI worries send Wall Street tumbling
• Reuters via AOL: European shares fall as global AI rout gathers pace
• Kitco: Gold holds gains, silver slips as Wall Street plunges, Fed hike bets ease
• BBC via Yahoo Finance: Bank of England raises interest rates to 4%
• AP via NBC Bay Area: A brutal sell-off for AI stocks sends Wall Street reeling
• Federal Reserve Board: Calendar, November 2026