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The one thing that matters this week
October CPI comes out Tuesday at 7:30 AM CT. Economists in a Bloomberg survey expect consumer prices to rise 0.3% for the month after September's 0.6%, and core prices, which leave out food and energy, to rise 0.2%, the smallest gain in three months. This report has a gap: BLS says it will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 where October 2025 data are missing, because it could not collect October 2025 data during last year's government shutdown. After Friday's strong jobs report, fed funds futures implied roughly an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike at the December 8–9 meeting, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.
Our read
With no yearly number to lean on, Tuesday comes down to one monthly figure: core CPI. The market has already priced a December hike; what this report decides is whether that hike looks like the last one or the start of a series. That's also why the AI earnings later in the week matter more than usual. They'll show whether the tech rout is about rates or about AI itself.
The calendar
| Day | Time CT | Event | Session | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 8 | 5:00 PM | US stock index and gold futures reopen | Asia | — |
| Sun Nov 8 | 7:30 PM | China CPI and PPI for October (NBS) | Asia | — |
| Mon Nov 9 | 7:40 AM | Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, community banking | NY | — |
| Mon Nov 9 | Midday | 3-year Treasury note auction | NY | — |
| Tue Nov 10 | 3:00 AM | Fed Governor Waller on the economic outlook (London) | London | — |
| Tue Nov 10 | 7:30 AM | October CPI | NY | Headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.2% m/m (Bloomberg survey) |
| Tue Nov 10 | Midday | 10-year Treasury note auction | NY | — |
| Tue Nov 10 | 2:30 PM | Bowman on the economic outlook | NY | — |
| Tue Nov 10 | 4:00 PM | CoreWeave third-quarter results call | NY | — |
| Wed Nov 11 | All day | Veterans Day: Federal Reserve holiday; NYSE open | — | — |
| Thu Nov 12 | 7:30 AM | Weekly jobless claims | NY | — |
| Thu Nov 12 | 9:00 AM | Fed Governor Barr on AI and inequality | NY | — |
| Thu Nov 12 | Midday | 30-year Treasury bond auction | NY | — |
| Thu Nov 12 | 3:30 PM | Applied Materials and Cisco results calls | NY | — |
| Fri Nov 13 | 7:30 AM | October PPI | NY | — |
| Fri Nov 13 | 6:00 PM | Fed Vice Chair Jefferson on productivity | NY | — |
Historical data this time, and the last 5 inflation (CPI)
| Released | Actual vs expected | Surprise | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This timeTue, Nov 10, 20267:30 AM CT | Expected Core +0.2% m/mBloomberg survey | Results after the release | |||
| Wed, Oct 14, 2026Sep 2026 | Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% | Hotter | -1.1% | -1.9% | Spot -1.7% to $4086.06 |
| Fri, Sep 11, 2026Aug 2026 | Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% | Hotter | +0.9% | +1.0% | Spot +1.6% to $4385.14 |
| Wed, Aug 12, 2026Jul 2026 | Core +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% | In line | +0.3% | +0.5% | Spot +0.9% to $4406.64 |
| Tue, Jul 14, 2026Jun 2026 | Headline +3.5% y/y vs +3.8% | Cooler | +0.4% | +0.9% | Spot +1.32% near $4052.80 |
| Wed, Jun 10, 2026May 2026 | Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed | not confirmed | -1.6% | -2.0% | Spot -4.26% near $4078.00 |
What happened, not what will. Closing moves for the day; sources on each row.Read the dive →Full history →
Why this report mattersChapter 5, Prices start rising →Chapter 8, Markets react →
What's priced in
Before Friday's jobs report, CME FedWatch showed a 70% chance of a December hike, Reuters reported. After the report, fed funds futures implied roughly 80%, according to LSEG data, and Reuters said investors expect about two more quarter-point increases in total this cycle. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time in three years and held in October.
"My expectation is, we're going to have to tighten policy further," Daly said Friday on CNBC, while calling the tech selloff "painful" but orderly.Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed "If you get a hot number and then you start adding additional tightening because the inflationary environment looks like it's accelerating, that's just something else that investors would have to absorb."Marvin Loh, State Street
Bloomberg Economics expects headline CPI to have slowed to 0.25% in October from 0.65%, and core to 0.24% from 0.33%.
What could move NQ, ES and gold (general tendencies, not predictions)
- Tech is already under pressure: the Nasdaq Composite closed Thursday nearly 12% below its October 6 record, Reuters reported, and Truist's Keith Lerner said tech was underperforming the S&P 500 by its widest margin since May 2002 over the past month.
- A core reading above forecast tends to lift rate-hike bets, yields and the dollar, which is the mix that has weighed on high-valued tech and on gold. A softer reading tends to ease all three. Our CPI record shows it doesn't always line up: on Sep 11, 2024, core came in hot and the Nasdaq closed up 2.2%.
- Gold traded just shy of $4,070 into Friday's close, Kitco reported, and Reuters said Friday it was headed for its strongest week in more than two months. Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650, citing the Fed's more hawkish stance, Reuters reported.
- Earnings from CoreWeave on Tuesday and Applied Materials and Cisco on Thursday arrive as the AI trade is being reassessed; Reuters called CoreWeave "the cloud company at the center of concerns about financing the AI buildout."
Tonight in Asia
Futures reopen at 5:00 PM CT. China's statistics bureau releases October CPI and PPI at 9:30 AM Monday in Beijing, which is 7:30 PM CT tonight. Oil stays in the background: Reuters said Friday that Brent was climbing back toward $100 a barrel but still headed for a sharp weekly drop on expectations of de-escalation in the US-Iran war.
What we're watching
- Core CPI's monthly number, since the yearly comparison is missing this time. A yearly October rate quoted for most indexes won't be an official BLS figure.
- Whether Fed speakers this week (Waller, Bowman, Barr, Jefferson) sound like a December hike is settled or still open.
- Gold sentiment is split: in Kitco's weekly survey, 31% of Wall Street analysts expected gains, 38% expected declines and 31% saw sideways trading, while 68% of Main Street voters expected higher prices.
The short version (the what and the result)
- October CPI is Tuesday at 7:30 AM CT. The Bloomberg survey expects +0.3% headline and +0.2% core for the month, and there will be no yearly rate for most indexes.
- Traders priced roughly an 80% chance of a December Fed hike after Friday's jobs report (LSEG, via Reuters).
- AI earnings: CoreWeave Tuesday; Applied Materials and Cisco Thursday, with calls after the close. PPI is Friday.
- Gold traded just shy of $4,070 into Friday's close (Kitco); Reuters said Friday it was on track for its best week in more than two months.
Sources
- Reuters (Yahoo Finance): As tech swoon roils market, US inflation data on tap
- Bloomberg (Business Standard): US inflation set to cool in October after two months of sharp increases
- BLS: 2025 government shutdown impact on the CPI, FAQ
- BLS: CPI release schedule
- Federal Reserve: November 2026 calendar
- US Treasury: Tentative auction schedule, Q4 2026
- NBS China: 2026 press release calendar
- CoreWeave: Date of third-quarter 2026 results
- Applied Materials: To report fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results
- Cisco: Q1 fiscal 2027 results conference call
- Reuters (Kitco): Fed's Daly says rate hike likely despite painful tech stock dive
- Reuters (Kitco): Gold drops but stays on track for best week in over two months
- Kitco: Wall Street split on gold following Dems' midterm rout, Main Street bulls emboldened
- NYSE: Holidays and trading hours
- The Retest: Historical Data, CPI