CPI Day, and the Fed's Waller Already Wants a Hike

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The one thing that matters today

October CPI comes out at 7:30 AM CT. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline prices to rise 0.3% for the month, after 0.6% in September, and the Bloomberg survey has core at +0.2%. Ahead of the data, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed ought to raise short-term borrowing costs next month even if inflation cooled in October, and should consider a half-point hike if the inflation picture worsens, Reuters reported. Markets are now fully pricing a December rate hike, Reuters said.

Our read

Here's what jumps out: Waller just changed the stakes for this morning. If a Fed governor wants a hike even on a cool number, a soft CPI may not buy much relief, while a hot one could open the door to talk of a bigger hike. And tech is already wrestling with the Nvidia story.

Before (overnight)

At 5:04 a.m. CT, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 0.35%, Dow E-minis up 0.3% and S&P 500 E-minis little changed, Reuters reported.
South Korea's KOSPI rose 4.4% and Japan's Nikkei gained 2.9%, and the pan-European STOXX 600 climbed 0.5%, coming within 1% of its record, Reuters reported.
Brent crude slipped below $90 a barrel for the first time since late August after Trump said he plans to hold off on new military strikes against Iran, Reuters reported.
On Monday, Trump said the FBI is looking into Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a woman alleged to be a spy for Beijing; China's foreign ministry called the spy claim "groundless," Reuters reported. Nvidia shares trimmed most of their premarket gains and were last up 0.3%, Reuters said.
Anthropic's IPO is expected to raise as much as $64.4 billion, according to a draft prospectus seen by Reuters.

The calendar

Time CT	Event	Consensus	Why it matters
7:30 AM	October CPI	Headline +0.3% m/m (Reuters poll); core +0.2% m/m (Bloomberg survey)	The week's main event; BLS won't publish 12-month changes for indexes missing October 2025 data
8:30 AM	US stock market opens	—	First cash reaction to CPI
After the close	CoreWeave results	—	Reuters calls it a barometer of investor anxiety over AI

Historical data this time, and the last 5 inflation (CPI)

Released	Actual vs expected	Surprise	S&P 500	Nasdaq	Gold
This timeTue, Nov 10, 20267:30 AM CT	Expected Core +0.2% m/mBloomberg survey	Results after the release
Wed, Oct 14, 2026Sep 2026	Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2%	Hotter	-1.1%	-1.9%	Spot -1.7% to $4086.06
Fri, Sep 11, 2026Aug 2026	Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2%	Hotter	+0.9%	+1.0%	Spot +1.6% to $4385.14
Wed, Aug 12, 2026Jul 2026	Core +0.2% m/m vs +0.2%	In line	+0.3%	+0.5%	Spot +0.9% to $4406.64
Tue, Jul 14, 2026Jun 2026	Headline +3.5% y/y vs +3.8%	Cooler	+0.4%	+0.9%	Spot +1.32% near $4052.80
Wed, Jun 10, 2026May 2026	Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed	not confirmed	-1.6%	-2.0%	Spot -4.26% near $4078.00

What happened, not what will. Closing moves for the day; sources on each row.What really happened →Full history →

Why this report mattersChapter 5, Prices start rising →Chapter 8, Markets react →

What's priced in

Markets fully price a December Fed rate hike after Waller's remarks, Reuters reported. Economists polled by Reuters estimate core inflation at 2.8% year on year, though BLS says it won't publish 12-month changes for indexes where October 2025 data are missing.

"We've seen two consecutive stronger core CPI prints, so if we saw a third such print today, it would definitely add to concerns amongst market participants and also the Federal Reserve over the risk that higher energy prices are spilling over into broader inflation pressure."^{Lee Hardman, MUFG} "The easy AI trade, where you could buy any company that was part of the AI ecosystem and make money from a general optimism about AI's potential, is mostly done."^{Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern}

What could move NQ, ES and gold (general tendencies, not predictions)

A hotter core number tends to lift yields and the dollar, which usually weighs on high-growth tech (NQ) and on gold.
A cooler number tends to do the opposite, though Waller's comments mean the relief could be limited.
Cheaper oil lifted Dow futures, Reuters said, while the Nvidia news weighed on Nasdaq futures.

What we're watching

CPI at 7:30. Does core make it three hot months in a row, or does cheaper energy start to show up? The numbers update live on our site.
How does tech handle the open with the Nvidia story still growing?
CoreWeave after the close. Can it ease the AI cost worries?

The short version (the what and the result)

October CPI at 7:30 AM CT: headline +0.3% m/m expected (Reuters poll), core +0.2% (Bloomberg survey).
Fed Governor Waller wants a December hike even if inflation cooled; markets fully price one (Reuters).
Nasdaq futures down 0.35%, Dow futures up 0.3% at 5:04 a.m. CT; Brent fell below $90.