PPI Day. Futures Are Steady, Nvidia Bounces, Microsoft Stumbles

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The one thing that matters today

October's producer price index (PPI) comes out at 7:30 AM CT. Forecasts call for a 0.4% rise in the headline number and 0.3% in core, after 1.3% and 0.7% in September, Yahoo Finance reported. Traders are fully pricing in a Fed rate hike in December, and the odds of a bigger half-point move are around 12%, according to CME FedWatch, Reuters reported.

Our read

Here's what jumps out: the week's loudest story was Nvidia, but the market's real boss this week has been inflation. The 10-year yield went from about 4.99% on Tuesday to 5.10% on Thursday, with the bond market closed Wednesday in between. Today's wholesale number is the last big inflation check before the weekend, and it lands on a market that's already braced for a hike. Markets are treating a December hike as a done deal; the question they're pricing is how big.

Before (overnight)

US stock futures were close to flat: at 4:03 AM CT, Dow E-minis were up 0.19%, S&P 500 E-minis up 0.13% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis down 0.11%, Reuters reported.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned Thursday, and CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO; Nvidia reports quarterly results Tuesday with no permanent CEO named, the company and Yahoo Finance said.
Nvidia rose 1.8% in premarket trading after losing around 11% this week through Thursday, Reuters reported. It's still on course for its longest streak of weekly losses since October 2012.
Microsoft fell 2.6% premarket after an outage of Outlook, Teams and Copilot that stretched beyond 12 hours, Reuters reported. AMD and Broadcom were each down more than 2.5%.
Cerebras jumped more than 16% premarket after raising its 2026 revenue forecast and signing Microsoft as a customer, Reuters reported.
In Asia, indexes in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea gained overnight, Reuters reported.
Europe pulled back from Thursday's record: the STOXX 600 was down 0.2% at 662.51 at 2:58 AM CT, with tech down 0.9%, Reuters reported.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.10% on Thursday, its highest level since October, Yahoo Finance reported. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,897.36 an ounce, Reuters reported in a story updated at 4:55 AM CT.
Bitcoin fell below $70,000 for the first time in nearly three months, Yahoo Finance reported.

The calendar

Time CT	Event	Consensus	Why it matters
7:30 AM	US October producer prices (PPI)	Headline +0.4% m/m, core +0.3% m/m (Yahoo Finance; poll not named)	Wholesale costs can show up on store shelves later, and the Fed is watching every inflation number right now
8:30 AM	US stock market opens	—	The last cash session of a bumpy week
9:50 AM	Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, discussion on supervision and regulation	—	Any word on rates will get attention on a hike-watch week
6:00 PM	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on productivity	—	A Fed voice after the close, heading into the weekend
Tue, Nov. 17	Nvidia quarterly results, after the close	—	The first report with no permanent CEO named

Historical data the last 5 producer prices (PPI)

Released	Actual vs expected	Surprise	S&P 500	Nasdaq	Gold
Thu, Oct 15, 2026Sep 2026	Headline +1.3% m/m vs +0.5%	Hotter	+0.3%	+0.1%	Spot +1.20% to $4,154.16
Thu, Sep 10, 2026Aug 2026	Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed	not confirmed	-0.6%	-0.7%	Spot -1.39% to $4,340.78
Thu, Aug 13, 2026Jul 2026	Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed	not confirmed	+0.7%	+0.8%	Spot -0.47% to $4,387.56
Wed, Jul 15, 2026Jun 2026	Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed	not confirmed	+0.4%	+0.6%	Spot +0.33% to $4,064.90
Thu, Jun 11, 2026May 2026	Core +0.4% m/m vs not confirmed	not confirmed	+1.8%	+2.5%	Spot -0.24% to $4,062.04

What happened, not what will. Closing moves for the day; sources on each row.Full history →

Why this report mattersChapter 5, Prices start rising →

What's priced in

Traders fully price in a December rate hike, with roughly a 12% chance of a half point, according to CME FedWatch, Reuters reported. Of the 450 S&P 500 companies that have reported as of Thursday, 83.6% beat expectations, according to LSEG, Reuters reported.

"There is a little bit of a knock-on effect as tech sector has come under pressure given the fallout from Nvidia in addition to concerns that were already lingering over the AI trade." (Reuters)^{Fiona Cincotta, independent market analyst}

What could move NQ, ES and gold (general tendencies, not predictions)

A hotter-than-expected PPI tends to push yields and the dollar up, which usually weighs on gold and on rate-sensitive tech. A cooler number tends to do the opposite.
The 10-year is above 5%. When long-term yields climb this fast, stock valuations, especially in tech, tend to feel it.
Nvidia and Microsoft are two of the biggest weights in the Nasdaq 100, so their moves alone can tilt NQ.

What we're watching

PPI at 7:30: does it back up Tuesday's hot CPI, or give the market a breather?
Nvidia's bouncing premarket. Does that hold once cash trading starts, after a week like this?
Does the 10-year stay above 5% into the weekend?

The short version (the what and the result)

October PPI at 7:30 AM CT: forecasts call for +0.4% headline and +0.3% core (Yahoo Finance); a December hike is fully priced in (CME FedWatch, Reuters).
Futures near flat at 4:03 AM CT: S&P 500 E-minis +0.13%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis −0.11% (Reuters). Nvidia +1.8% and Microsoft −2.6% premarket (Reuters).
The 10-year yield reached 5.10% Thursday, its highest since October (Yahoo Finance); gold +0.5% early Friday (Reuters). Fed's Bowman at 9:50 AM CT, Jefferson at 6:00 PM CT.