History, not a prediction. Commentary and education only. Not financial advice.
The Dive tells the story of three inflation reports that landed right after the Fed started raising rates: April 12, 2022, May 11, 2022 and October 14, 2026. This page shows the work: how we picked those three, how we measured them, every figure we used, and where each one comes from. If a number here disagrees with the Dive, the Dive is wrong and we fix it.
How we chose the cases
The rule: the first and second CPI (consumer price index) reports after the Fed's first rate hike following a hold or a cut. Tuesday's report, Nov. 10, is the second after the Sept. 16, 2026 hike.
Our record starts in 2021. That rule picks exactly three reports:
| Release | Report | Where the Fed was |
|---|---|---|
| Apr. 12, 2022 | March CPI | First report after the Mar. 16, 2022 hike, the first since 2018 |
| May 11, 2022 | April CPI | Second report; the Fed had just hiked again, by half a point, on May 4 |
| Oct. 14, 2026 | September CPI | First report after the Sept. 16, 2026 hike |
Nothing else was considered, and we didn't pick these because of how markets moved. Three cases are a small sample: enough to show how the chain has worked, not enough to prove a pattern.
How we measured
Daily closes come from the St. Louis Fed's FRED database. "T" is the release day.
- Before: the five trading days into the release, from the close six sessions before (T−6) to the close the day before (T−1).
- Release day: the close the day before to the close on release day.
- After: the release-day close to the close five sessions later.
- The $10,000 lines: $10,000 placed in the S&P 500 at the T−6 close, then valued at each later close. "A month later" is 21 trading days after the release and "three months later" is 63. It's an illustration of how the index moved, not a return anyone earned; fund fees and dividends aren't included.
- "A typical day's move": a rule of thumb that divides the VIX by 16 to estimate a normal one-day move in the S&P 500. With the VIX near 33, that's about 2%; near 15, about 1%. It's an estimate, not a forecast.
- Units: stock moves in percent; Treasury yields in basis points (bp), where 1 bp is a hundredth of a percentage point; the VIX in points.
- Forecasts: only from a named survey or poll (Bloomberg survey or Reuters poll), said case by case.
Case 1: April 12, 2022 (March CPI)
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Source of forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline, past year | 8.5% | 8.4% | Bloomberg survey |
| Headline, month | 1.2% | 1.2% | Bloomberg survey |
| Core, month | 0.3% | 0.5% | Bloomberg survey (median) |
Inside the report: gasoline accounted for about half the monthly rise; used-car prices fell the most since 1969 (Bloomberg).
| How markets moved | Before (5 days) | Release day | After (5 days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −3.7% | −0.3% | +1.4% |
| Nasdaq Composite | −7.7% | −0.3% | +0.6% |
| 2-year Treasury yield | +7 bp | −11 bp | +21 bp |
| 10-year Treasury yield | +37 bp | −7 bp | +13 bp |
| VIX | +5.8 | −0.1 | −3.9 |
Also on release day: gold futures +1.4% to $1,976.10 (Kiplinger).
Case 2: May 11, 2022 (April CPI)
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Source of forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline, past year | 8.3% | — | First slowdown since August 2021 (Reuters) |
| Headline, month | 0.3% | 0.2% | Reuters poll |
| Core, month | 0.6% | 0.4% | Bloomberg survey (median) |
Inside the report: airline fares rose a record 18.6%; gasoline fell (Reuters).
| How markets moved | Before (5 days) | Release day | After (5 days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −4.2% | −1.6% | −0.3% |
| Nasdaq Composite | −6.6% | −3.2% | +0.5% |
| 2-year Treasury yield | −16 bp | +4 bp | +2 bp |
| 10-year Treasury yield | +2 bp | −8 bp | −2 bp |
| VIX | +3.7 (to 33.0) | −0.4 | −1.6 |
The backdrop: on May 4 the Fed raised rates by half a point, its biggest increase in 22 years, and said it would start shrinking its bond holdings (Reuters).
Case 3: October 14, 2026 (September CPI)
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Source of forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline, month | 0.6% | 0.6% (as expected) | Reuters |
| Headline, past year | 3.7% | — | |
| Core, month | 0.3% | 0.2% | Reuters poll |
What it did to Fed bets: CME FedWatch odds of an October hike went from about 22% before the report to about 52% after (Reuters).
| How markets moved | Before (5 days) | Release day | After (5 days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −0.2% | −1.1% | +0.5% |
| Nasdaq Composite | −1.4% | −1.9% | 0.0% |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 0 bp | +3 bp | −1 bp |
| 10-year Treasury yield | −6 bp | −2 bp | −6 bp |
| VIX | +0.3 (to 15.3) | +1.6 | −0.2 |
The next morning, producer prices rose 1.3% against a 0.5% forecast and retail sales beat too; the S&P 500 still rose 0.3% (Reuters, AP). On Oct. 28 the Fed held, with two officials voting for another hike.
Side by side
| Apr. 12, 2022 | May 11, 2022 | Oct. 14, 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core vs forecast | Cooler (0.3% vs 0.5%) | Hotter (0.6% vs 0.4%) | Hotter (0.3% vs 0.2%) |
| Before: Nasdaq | −7.7% | −6.6% | −1.4% |
| Before: 2-year yield | +7 bp | −16 bp | 0 bp |
| Release day: S&P 500 | −0.3% | −1.6% | −1.1% |
| Release day: Nasdaq | −0.3% | −3.2% | −1.9% |
| Release day: 2-year yield | −11 bp | +4 bp | +3 bp |
| After: S&P 500 | +1.4% | −0.3% | +0.5% |
| After: 2-year yield | +21 bp | +2 bp | −1 bp |
| VIX the day before | 24.4 | 33.0 | 15.3 |
| Typical day's move (VIX ÷ 16) | about 1.5% | about 2% | about 1% |
The $10,000 lines
$10,000 in the S&P 500 at the close six trading days before each report (the chart beside the Dive).
| Day before | Report day | A week later | A month later | Three months later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr. 2022 | $9,629 | $9,596 | $9,731 | $8,576 (May 12) | $8,271 (July 14) |
| May 2022 | $9,582 | $9,424 | $9,397 | $9,342 (June 10) | $10,076 (Aug. 11) |
| Oct. 2026 | $9,983 | $9,872 | $9,921 | — | — |
Starting closes (S&P 500, FRED): Apr. 4, 2022: 4,582.64 · May 3, 2022: 4,175.48 · Oct. 6, 2026: 7,818.93. Latest Oct. 2026 point: $9,405 as of Nov. 5 (S&P 500 close 7,353.73). Rechecked against FRED Nov. 7.
The kitchen table, in numbers
The latest reading before each report, with the same week a year earlier.
| Apr. 2022 | May 2022 | Oct. 2026 | Latest | Series (source) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular gas, per gallon | $4.09 (yr ago $2.85) | $4.33 (yr ago $2.96) | $4.33 (yr ago $3.06) | $4.15 (Nov. 2) | GASREGW (Energy Information Administration) |
| 30-year mortgage rate | 4.72% (yr ago 3.13%) | 5.27% (yr ago 2.96%) | 7.40% (yr ago 6.30%) | 7.18% (Nov. 5) | MORTGAGE30US (Freddie Mac) |
| Unemployment rate (as revised) | 3.7% (Mar.) | 3.7% (Apr.) | 4.2% (Sept.) | 4.1% (Oct.) | UNRATE (Labor Department) |
| Fed's key rate, top of range | 0.50% | 1.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | DFEDTARU (Federal Reserve) |
| 3-month Treasury bill rate | 0.78% | 0.89% | 4.09% | 4.03% (Nov. 4) | DTB3 (Federal Reserve) |
| Real average hourly earnings, past year | −2.7% (Mar.) | −2.6% (Apr.) | −0.7% (Sept.) | — | Labor Department |
Why the T-bill rate: it's a rough guide to what new savings accounts and CDs can pay. It's a market rate, so it can sit a little above the Fed's ceiling, as it did around this report (4.09% the day before, 4.10% on Oct. 14, vs a 4.00% ceiling).
Why one gas source: AP's Lundberg survey had $4.27 for the April 2022 week; we use the Energy Department's weekly average throughout so every case is measured the same way.
The wider picture
The three cases are the closest matches. Here is every CPI report from the Fed's 2022–23 hiking stretch, plus the 2026 reports, from our Historical Data, so you can see how much the release-day reaction varied. Surprise is judged on core prices for the month against a named forecast; "not confirmed" means we don't have a named forecast or a sourced close.
| Released | Core, month | Forecast | Surprise | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Fed range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr. 12, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Cooler | −0.3% | not confirmed | 0.25–0.50% |
| May 11, 2022 | 0.6% | 0.4% | Hotter | −1.6% | −3.2% | 0.75–1.00% |
| June 10, 2022 | 0.6% | not confirmed | not confirmed | −2.91% | −3.52% | 0.75–1.00% |
| July 13, 2022 | 0.7% | not confirmed | not confirmed | −0.4% | −0.2% | 1.50–1.75% |
| Aug. 10, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Cooler | +2.1% | +2.9% | 2.25–2.50% |
| Sept. 13, 2022 | 0.6% | 0.3% | Hotter | −4.3% | −5.2% | 2.25–2.50% |
| Oct. 13, 2022 | 0.6% | 0.4% | Hotter | +2.6% | +2.2% | 3.00–3.25% |
| Nov. 10, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Cooler | +5.5% | +7.4% | 3.75–4.00% |
| Dec. 13, 2022 | 0.2% | not confirmed | not confirmed | +0.7% | +1.0% | 3.75–4.00% |
| Jan. 12, 2023 | 0.3% | 0.3% | In line | +0.3% | +0.6% | 4.25–4.50% |
| Feb. 14, 2023 | 0.4% | not confirmed | Hotter § | not confirmed | +0.6% | 4.50–4.75% |
| Mar. 14, 2023 | 0.5% | 0.4% | Hotter | +1.7% | +2.1% | 4.50–4.75% |
| Apr. 12, 2023 | 0.4% | not confirmed | Cooler § | −0.41% | −0.85% | 4.75–5.00% |
| May 10, 2023 | 0.4% | not confirmed | not confirmed | +0.44% | +1.04% | 5.00–5.25% |
| June 13, 2023 | 0.4% | not confirmed | Cooler § | +0.69% | +0.83% | 5.00–5.25% |
| July 12, 2023 | 0.2% | not confirmed | Cooler § | +0.74% | +1.15% | 5.00–5.25% |
| Aug. 10, 2023 | 0.2% | 0.2% | In line | +0.03% | +0.12% | 5.25–5.50% |
| Sept. 11, 2026 | 0.3% | 0.2% | Hotter | +0.9% | +1.0% | 3.50–3.75% |
| Oct. 14, 2026 | 0.3% | 0.2% | Hotter | −1.1% | −1.9% | 3.75–4.00% |
§ No poll we could find named a core forecast those months, so, following our rule, the surprise is judged on the headline rate over the past year against the Reuters poll: Feb. 2023 6.4% vs 6.2% (Hotter), Apr. 2023 5.0% vs 5.2% (Cooler), June 2023 4.0% vs 4.1% (Cooler), July 2023 3.0% vs 3.1% (Cooler).
The lingo
- CPI (consumer price index): the government's monthly measure of how much prices rose for a basket of everyday goods and services.
- Headline vs core: headline includes everything; core leaves out food and energy, whose prices swing a lot, to show the underlying trend. The Fed watches core most closely.
- m/m and y/y: month over month (change from the prior month) and year over year (change from the same month a year earlier).
- Forecast, named poll: the median estimate from a survey of economists (Reuters poll, Bloomberg survey). We only use forecasts we can name.
- Surprise (Hotter, Cooler, In line): how core came in against the named forecast. Hotter means prices rose faster than expected.
- Fed's key rate (federal funds rate): the interest rate the Fed sets, shown as a range; we show the top of it.
- 2-year Treasury yield: what the U.S. government pays to borrow for two years. It moves with expectations for the Fed, so it's the market's running bet on the Fed's next steps.
- 10-year Treasury yield: the same for ten years; mortgage rates tend to follow it.
- Basis point (bp): a hundredth of a percentage point. 25 bp = 0.25 point.
- VIX: the Cboe Volatility Index, Wall Street's "fear gauge." It reflects how big a move traders expect in the S&P 500 over the next month.
- CME FedWatch: a tool that turns futures prices into the market's odds of each Fed decision.
- Nasdaq Composite vs Nasdaq 100: the Composite (used here) includes nearly every Nasdaq-listed stock; the Nasdaq 100 is its 100 largest non-financial companies. Both lean heavily toward tech.
- Real earnings: pay adjusted for inflation; negative means a paycheck buys less than a year earlier.
New to any of these? The Academy explains them from scratch.
Sources
- FRED, St. Louis Fed: SP500, NASDAQCOM, DGS2, DGS10, VIXCLS, GASREGW, MORTGAGE30US, UNRATE, DFEDTARU, DTB3
- Bloomberg via InvestmentNews: U.S. inflation quickens to 8.5% (Apr. 12, 2022)
- Bloomberg via Accounting Today: U.S. inflation quickens to 8.5% (Apr. 12, 2022)
- BNN Bloomberg: Treasuries rally after core inflation rises less than expected (Apr. 12, 2022)
- Kiplinger: Stocks rally, then retreat, amid 40-year-high CPI (Apr. 12, 2022)
- AP via ABC17: Stocks give up gains, end lower following inflation report (Apr. 12, 2022)
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates continue climbing (Apr. 7, 2022)
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates increase (May 5, 2022)
- Reuters via Lincoln Daily News: U.S. inflation simmers (May 11, 2022)
- Bloomberg survey via Lodi News-Sentinel: Prices outstrip forecasts (May 12, 2022)
- AP via MyNorthwest: How major US stock indexes fared (May 11, 2022)
- Reuters via Devdiscourse: US inflation heats up in September (Oct. 14, 2026)
- AP via InsuranceNewsNet: How major US stock indexes fared (Oct. 14, 2026)
- Reuters via Star-Advertiser: U.S. producer prices post biggest gain in 4 1/2 years (Oct. 15, 2026)
- Labor Department: real hourly earnings, March 2022
- Labor Department: real hourly earnings, April 2022
- Labor Department: real hourly earnings, September 2026
- Fortune: Fed holds rates steady days before the midterms; Cook and Hammack dissent (Oct. 28, 2026)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statements