Historical Data: Economic Releases and Market Reactions

Coming up

Official schedules · times CT · checked Nov 3

380 releases since October 2021, and counting. Last added: PCE inflation (Sep 2026), released Thu, Oct 29, 2026. A new row goes in after every report.

Jobs reportsOct 2021 – Sep 2026 · 59 releases · 1 not publishedWhy it matters: Chapter 4 →

Inflation (CPI)Oct 2021 – Sep 2026 · 59 releases · 1 not publishedWhy it matters: Chapter 5 →

PCE inflationOct 2021 – Sep 2026 · 60 releasesWhy it matters: Chapter 5 →

Producer prices (PPI)Oct 2021 – Sep 2026 · 60 releasesWhy it matters: Chapter 5 →

Retail salesOct 2021 – Sep 2026 · 60 releasesWhy it matters: Chapter 4 →

GDP (advance)Q3 2021 – Q3 2026 · 21 quartersWhy it matters: Chapter 4 →

Fed decisionsNov 2021 – Oct 2026 · 41 meetingsWhy it matters: Chapter 6 →

Nvidia earningsQ3 FY2022 – Q2 FY2027 · 20 quartersWhy it matters: Chapter 8 →

How this is built

Each forecast names its poll or survey: Reuters, Dow Jones, Bloomberg or FactSet.
Fed rows: the decision, range and dissents come from the Fed's statement. "Expected" is what reports said markets priced in beforehand.
Stock moves are the day's closing change for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
Gold is labeled spot or futures, with the time when reported.
CPI and PCE surprises are judged on core month over month when a named forecast exists, otherwise on headline year over year (noted on the row). PPI and retail sales are judged on the headline month over month; GDP on the annualized growth rate.
Nvidia rows: revenue and outlook against a named analysts' average (LSEG, Zacks or Bloomberg). Nvidia reports after the close, so the stock, index and gold moves are the next trading day's.
"Key figures sourced" means the actual numbers, a named forecast, both index closes and gold are all sourced. Any other figure we couldn't confirm is listed on the row.
"Partial" means a key figure couldn't be confirmed, or a source fell short of our standard. We mark them; we never guess.

EventSurpriseFed backdropYearShowing 20 of 380 releases (+2 not published) · newest first

Event	Released	Actual vs expected	Surprise	Detail	Fed	S&P 500	Nasdaq	Gold	Sourcing
Fed decisionOct 2026	Wed, Oct 28, 20261:00 PM CT	HoldHold expected by market consensus (Kitco)	As expected	3.75-4.00%target range	Holding at 3.75-4.00%	+0.3%	+0.3%	Spot $4,035.48/oz, down 0.60%	PartialDetails ▾
CPISep 2026	Wed, Oct 14, 20267:30 AM CT	Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2%Reuters poll (Reuters/Lucia Mutikani via Kitco off-the-wire)	Hotter	+3.7%headline y/y · core y/y +2.6%	Just hiked3.75-4.00%	-1.1%	-1.9%	Spot -1.7% to $4086.06	Key figures sourcedDetails ▾
Fed decisionSep 2026	Wed, Sep 16, 20261:00 PM CT	Hike 25 bpHike expected by market consensus (Kitco)	As expected	3.75-4.00%target range	Hiked 25 bp to 3.75-4.00%	not confirmed	not confirmed	Spot $4,310.10/oz, up 0.38%	PartialDetails ▾
GDPQ3 2026	Thu, Oct 29, 20267:30 AM CT	+3.4% vs +3.2%annualized · Reuters poll	Above	+3.8%consumer spending (annualized)	Holding3.75-4.00%	-0.3%	-1.4%	Spot $4,025.24/oz, -1.03%	PartialDetails ▾
Jobs reportSep 2026	Fri, Oct 2, 20267:30 AM CT	+29K vs +90KReuters poll (range 35k-180k)	Below	4.2%jobless rate · exp. 4.1%	First hike in three years on Sep 163.75-4.00%	+0.7%	+1.14%	Spot -0.8% to -1.1%	PartialDetails ▾
PCESep 2026	Thu, Oct 29, 20267:30 AM CT	Core +0.3% m/m vs not confirmedNo named poll found	not confirmed	+3.6%headline y/y · core y/y +3.1%	Holding3.75-4.00%	-0.3%	-1.4%	Spot -1.03% to $4,025.24	PartialDetails ▾
PPISep 2026	Thu, Oct 15, 20267:30 AM CT	Headline +1.3% m/m vs +0.5%Reuters poll	Hotter	+6.3%headline y/y · core y/y +5.0%	Hiked 25 bp on 2026-09-163.75-4.00%	+0.3%	+0.1%	Spot +1.20% to $4,154.16	Key figures sourcedDetails ▾
Retail salesSep 2026	Thu, Oct 15, 20267:30 AM CT	+0.8% m/m vs +0.3%Reuters poll (AP cites FactSet 0.3 too)	Above	+0.1%control group m/m · exp. +0.3%	Hiked 25 bp on 2026-09-163.75-4.00%	+0.3%	+0.1%	Spot +1.20% to $4,154.16	PartialDetails ▾
CPIAug 2026	Fri, Sep 11, 20267:30 AM CT	Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2%Reuters poll (Reuters via Kitco off-the-wire)	Hotter	+3.4%headline y/y · core y/y +2.4%	Holding3.50-3.75%	+0.9%	+1.0%	Spot +1.6% to $4385.14	PartialDetails ▾
Jobs reportAug 2026	Fri, Sep 4, 20267:30 AM CT	+162K vs +56KReuters poll	Above	4.1%jobless rate · exp. 4.1%	Holding3.50-3.75%	-0.38%	-0.29%	Spot -0.9% to $4432.58	Key figures sourcedDetails ▾
PCEAug 2026	Wed, Sep 30, 20267:30 AM CT	Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmedReuters poll (headline m/m only)	not confirmed	+3.4%headline y/y · core y/y +3.0%	Hiked 25 bp on 2026-09-163.75-4.00%	-0.3%	+0.2%	Spot +0.73% near $4,211.70	PartialDetails ▾
PPIAug 2026	Thu, Sep 10, 20267:30 AM CT	Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmedNo named poll found	not confirmed	+5.4%headline y/y · core y/y +4.6%	Holding3.50-3.75%	-0.6%	-0.7%	Spot -1.39% to $4,340.78	PartialDetails ▾
Retail salesAug 2026	Wed, Sep 16, 20267:30 AM CT	+1.2% m/m vs +0.8%Reuters poll	Above	+1.4%control group m/m · exp. +0.4%	Holding3.50-3.75%	-0.4%	not confirmed	Spot +1.10% to $4,340.98	PartialDetails ▾
Nvidia earningsQ2 FY2027	Wed, Aug 26, 2026After close	Revenue $96.221b vs not confirmedLSEG (Reuters) for guidance only; no named revenue estimate	not confirmed	+8.7%Nvidia stock, next day · after hours +4%	Holding3.50-3.75%	+0.7%	+1.6%	Spot little changed at $4,590.21	PartialDetails ▾
CPIJul 2026	Wed, Aug 12, 20267:30 AM CT	Core +0.2% m/m vs +0.2%Reuters poll (Reuters via Kitco off-the-wire)	In line	+3.4%headline y/y · core y/y +2.5%	Holding3.50-3.75%	+0.3%	+0.5%	Spot +0.9% to $4406.64	PartialDetails ▾
Fed decisionJul 2026	Wed, Jul 29, 20261:00 PM CT	HoldHold expected (Kitco: 'As expected'); markets priced roughly 30% chance of a hike	As expected	3.50-3.75%target range	Holding at 3.50-3.75%	-1.5%	-1.7%	Spot $4,073.60/oz, up more than 1%	Key figures sourcedDetails ▾
Jobs reportJul 2026	Fri, Aug 7, 20267:30 AM CT	-23K vs not confirmedNamed poll not found (Kitco: 85k; source unnamed)	not confirmed	4.1%jobless rate · exp. not confirmed	Holding3.50-3.75%	+0.6%	not confirmed	Spot +2.4% to $4342.81	PartialDetails ▾
PCEJul 2026	Wed, Aug 26, 20267:30 AM CT	Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmedNo named poll found	not confirmed	+3.7%headline y/y · core y/y +3.3%	Holding3.50-3.75%	not confirmed	-0.1%	Spot -1.42% near $4,591.70	PartialDetails ▾
PPIJul 2026	Thu, Aug 13, 20267:30 AM CT	Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmedNo named poll found	not confirmed	+4.7%headline y/y · core y/y +4.2%	Holding3.50-3.75%	+0.7%	+0.8%	Spot -0.47% to $4,387.56	PartialDetails ▾
Retail salesJul 2026	Fri, Aug 14, 20267:30 AM CT	-0.6% m/m vs +0.1%Reuters poll	Below	-0.4%control group m/m · exp. +0.3%	Holding3.50-3.75%	-0.2%	-0.3%	Spot +0.68% to $4,380.88	PartialDetails ▾

Fed decision · Oct 2026Partial

Wed, Oct 28, 2026 · 1:00 PM CT

Hold As expected

Hold expected by market consensus (Kitco)

S&P 500+0.3%Nasdaq+0.3%GoldSpot $4,035.48/oz, down 0.60%FedHolding at 3.75-4.00%

CPI · Sep 2026Key figures sourced

Wed, Oct 14, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% Hotter

Reuters poll (Reuters/Lucia Mutikani via Kitco off-the-wire)

S&P 500-1.1%Nasdaq-1.9%GoldSpot -1.7% to $4086.06FedJust hiked · 3.75-4.00%

Fed decision · Sep 2026Partial

Wed, Sep 16, 2026 · 1:00 PM CT

Hike 25 bp As expected

Hike expected by market consensus (Kitco)

S&P 500not confirmedNasdaqnot confirmedGoldSpot $4,310.10/oz, up 0.38%FedHiked 25 bp to 3.75-4.00%

GDP · Q3 2026Partial

Thu, Oct 29, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

+3.4% vs +3.2% Above

annualized · Reuters poll

S&P 500-0.3%Nasdaq-1.4%GoldSpot $4,025.24/oz, -1.03%FedHolding · 3.75-4.00%

Jobs report · Sep 2026Partial

Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

+29K vs +90K Below

Reuters poll (range 35k-180k)

S&P 500+0.7%Nasdaq+1.14%GoldSpot -0.8% to -1.1%FedFirst hike in three years on Sep 16 · 3.75-4.00%

PCE · Sep 2026Partial

Thu, Oct 29, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

Core +0.3% m/m vs not confirmed

No named poll found

S&P 500-0.3%Nasdaq-1.4%GoldSpot -1.03% to $4,025.24FedHolding · 3.75-4.00%

PPI · Sep 2026Key figures sourced

Thu, Oct 15, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

Headline +1.3% m/m vs +0.5% Hotter

Reuters poll

S&P 500+0.3%Nasdaq+0.1%GoldSpot +1.20% to $4,154.16FedHiked 25 bp on 2026-09-16 · 3.75-4.00%

Retail sales · Sep 2026Partial

Thu, Oct 15, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

+0.8% m/m vs +0.3% Above

Reuters poll (AP cites FactSet 0.3 too)

S&P 500+0.3%Nasdaq+0.1%GoldSpot +1.20% to $4,154.16FedHiked 25 bp on 2026-09-16 · 3.75-4.00%

CPI · Aug 2026Partial

Fri, Sep 11, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% Hotter

Reuters poll (Reuters via Kitco off-the-wire)

S&P 500+0.9%Nasdaq+1.0%GoldSpot +1.6% to $4385.14FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

Jobs report · Aug 2026Key figures sourced

Fri, Sep 4, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

+162K vs +56K Above

Reuters poll

S&P 500-0.38%Nasdaq-0.29%GoldSpot -0.9% to $4432.58FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

PCE · Aug 2026Partial

Wed, Sep 30, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed

Reuters poll (headline m/m only)

S&P 500-0.3%Nasdaq+0.2%GoldSpot +0.73% near $4,211.70FedHiked 25 bp on 2026-09-16 · 3.75-4.00%

PPI · Aug 2026Partial

Thu, Sep 10, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed

No named poll found

S&P 500-0.6%Nasdaq-0.7%GoldSpot -1.39% to $4,340.78FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

Retail sales · Aug 2026Partial

Wed, Sep 16, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

+1.2% m/m vs +0.8% Above

Reuters poll

S&P 500-0.4%Nasdaqnot confirmedGoldSpot +1.10% to $4,340.98FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

Nvidia earnings · Q2 FY2027Partial

Wed, Aug 26, 2026 · After close

Revenue $96.221b vs not confirmed

LSEG (Reuters) for guidance only; no named revenue estimate

S&P 500+0.7%Nasdaq+1.6%GoldSpot little changed at $4,590.21FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

CPI · Jul 2026Partial

Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

Core +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% In line

Reuters poll (Reuters via Kitco off-the-wire)

S&P 500+0.3%Nasdaq+0.5%GoldSpot +0.9% to $4406.64FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

Fed decision · Jul 2026Key figures sourced

Wed, Jul 29, 2026 · 1:00 PM CT

Hold As expected

Hold expected (Kitco: 'As expected'); markets priced roughly 30% chance of a hike

S&P 500-1.5%Nasdaq-1.7%GoldSpot $4,073.60/oz, up more than 1%FedHolding at 3.50-3.75%

Jobs report · Jul 2026Partial

Fri, Aug 7, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

-23K vs not confirmed

Named poll not found (Kitco: 85k; source unnamed)

S&P 500+0.6%Nasdaqnot confirmedGoldSpot +2.4% to $4342.81FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

PCE · Jul 2026Partial

Wed, Aug 26, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed

No named poll found

S&P 500not confirmedNasdaq-0.1%GoldSpot -1.42% near $4,591.70FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

PPI · Jul 2026Partial

Thu, Aug 13, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed

No named poll found

S&P 500+0.7%Nasdaq+0.8%GoldSpot -0.47% to $4,387.56FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

Retail sales · Jul 2026Partial

Fri, Aug 14, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT

-0.6% m/m vs +0.1% Below

Reuters poll

S&P 500-0.2%Nasdaq-0.3%GoldSpot +0.68% to $4,380.88FedHolding · 3.50-3.75%

Tap any row for the first-minutes reaction where reported, other news that day, and every source. This is a historical record, not a prediction: past reactions don't tell you what happens next. Commentary and education only. Not financial advice.

Historical data.

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