Definition
The first official estimate of GDP (gross domestic product) for a quarter, released about a month after it ends and revised later.
The story
It's like the first draft of a test score before every answer is graded. On Oct 29, 2026, the advance estimate put third-quarter growth at a 3.4% annual rate. Two more estimates will follow as missing data comes in, and the number can change.
Why markets watch it
It's the version that hits the headlines and gets the market reaction.
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We explain why it moves markets. What you do with it is your call. Commentary and education only. Not financial advice. All terms