Definition
The recurring pattern of expansion, peak, contraction (recession) and trough in the economy.
The story
Since 1945, US expansions have averaged about 64 months and contractions about 10, according to the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research). In the US, the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee decides when a cycle peaks and bottoms, often months after the fact.
Why markets watch it
Where investors think we are in the cycle shapes which sectors and assets they favor.
Connects to
We explain why it moves markets. What you do with it is your call. Commentary and education only. Not financial advice. All terms