Recession

Definition

A significant decline in economic activity that spreads across the economy and lasts more than a few months.

The story

You may have heard "two quarters of shrinking GDP" (gross domestic product). That's a rule of thumb, not the official definition. In the US, a committee of economists at the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) makes the call, looking at jobs, income, spending and production, often months after it starts.

Why markets watch it

Recession fears can hit stocks and push money toward Treasuries and gold.

Connects to

Last seen in

The Close, Monday, November 2, 2026 →

We explain why it moves markets. What you do with it is your call. Commentary and education only. Not financial advice. All terms