Jobs, Midterms and Big Tech Earnings Test a Market Pricing a December Fed Hike

Explain terms

The one thing that matters this week

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, and the statement said "Inflation remains elevated." The range already includes a 25-basis-point hike in September, the Fed's first in three years. On October 27, before the decision, CME FedWatch showed about a 75% chance of a December hike.

Friday's October jobs report is the week's key test of that view. Economists expect about 55,000 jobs, after 29,000 in September, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Before the meeting, Barclays forecast a hold in October followed by two successive hikes.^{Barclays (Marc Giannoni)}

Every other event this week, from Big Tech earnings to the election to the Bank of England, lands on a market that is already repricing for higher rates. That makes Friday's labor data the hinge for all three of our markets.

Where we start

The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86% to 25,437.00 on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07. In October the Nasdaq fell about 5%, its worst month since March 2025, while the S&P 500 lost 1.2%. Alphabet and Amazon both posted rare earnings misses, and Intel sank on a weak outlook.

Spot gold fell 3.74% on the week to about $3,875 an ounce, its lowest in about a year. Kitco linked gold's slide to liquidation during the stock selloff and to higher oil adding to inflation worries. Another tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, WTI settled at $104.12 and Brent at $117.64. The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.93%.

The calendar

All times are US Central, which moved back to standard time today. Consensus figures for US data and earnings are from Yahoo Finance's week-ahead previews, and earnings timing is from company announcements where noted.

Day	Time CT	Event	Session (Asia/London/NY)	Consensus
Sun Nov 1	5:00 PM	CME equity and metals futures reopen	Asia	—
Mon Nov 2	9:00 AM	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	NY	54.7 (prior 54.5); prices paid 77.5
Mon Nov 2	After close (call 4:00 PM)	Apple fiscal Q4 earnings	NY	EPS $1.98, revenue $113.27B
Mon Nov 2	After close (webcast 4:00 PM)	Palantir Q3 earnings	NY	EPS $0.41, revenue $2.18B
Mon Nov 2	9:30 PM	Reserve Bank of Australia decision + forecasts	Asia	Markets lean toward a hike
Tue Nov 3	All day	US midterm elections (435 House, 35 Senate seats)	NY	—
Tue Nov 3	All day	Japan markets closed (Culture Day)	Asia	—
Tue Nov 3	9:00 AM	JOLTS job openings (Sept)	NY	7.10M (prior 7.09M)
Tue Nov 3	After close (call 4:00 PM)	AMD Q3 earnings	NY	EPS $1.94, revenue $13.1B
Wed Nov 4	7:15 AM	ADP private payrolls (Oct)	NY	+70K (prior +90K)
Wed Nov 4	9:00 AM	ISM Services PMI (Oct)	NY	54.7 (prior 54.9)
Wed Nov 4	Company times	Earnings: Arm, Qualcomm, Uber, McDonald's, Novo Nordisk	NY	—
Thu Nov 5	Morning (noon London is 6:00 AM CT)	Bank of England decision + Monetary Policy Report	London	Hike to 4.00% expected (Reuters poll)
Thu Nov 5	7:30 AM	Jobless claims; Q3 productivity	NY	Productivity +3.0%
Thu Nov 5	Company times	Earnings: Airbnb, Cloudflare, ConocoPhillips, Toyota, Sony	NY	—
Fri Nov 6	7:30 AM	October jobs report	NY	+55K jobs; unemployment 4.2%; wages +0.3% m/m
Fri Nov 6	9:00 AM	UMich sentiment (Nov prelim)	NY	47.3 (prior 48)

What's priced in

Fed: On the morning of October 27, before the decision, CME FedWatch showed a 75.1% chance of a hike at the December 9 meeting, up from 42% a month earlier. The Fed then held with two dissents for a hike.
Before the meeting, Eitelman expected "a hawkish hold in October with the Fed delivering one more hike at year-end."^{Russell Investments (Paul Eitelman)}
Bank of England: In a Reuters poll taken October 12–14, 54 of 63 economists expected a quarter-point hike to 4.00% this month. UK inflation was 3.1%. "The bigger pickup in inflation is still ahead of us rather than behind us."^{Bank of America (Sonali Punhani)}
RBA: Australian annual headline inflation rose to 4.3% in September. ABC News reported that swaps priced roughly an 80% to 90% chance of a November hike right after the data. Ellis expects a November hike but does not see further hikes as her base case.^{Westpac (Luci Ellis)} CBA moved its call from hold to an "insurance hike."^{CBA (Belinda Allen)}
Gold sentiment: In Kitco's weekly survey, 10 of 16 Wall Street participants were bearish, 1 bullish and 5 neutral. Main Street voters were 53% bullish.

What could move NQ, ES and gold (general tendencies, not predictions)

Jobs and wages: A stronger-than-expected report has tended to lift yields and rate-hike odds, which historically weighs on rate-sensitive tech (NQ) and non-yielding gold. A weaker report has tended to do the reverse.
Big Tech earnings: After Alphabet and Amazon missed, results and AI-spending commentary from Apple, Palantir, AMD, Arm and Qualcomm can move NQ more than ES, because those names weigh more heavily in the Nasdaq 100. On Amazon: "This was an expectations correction and not a fundamentals correction."^{Evercore ISI (Mark Mahaney)}
Election results: Election nights have often brought volatility in overnight futures as results come in. Markets tend to react to the policy outlook (spending, taxes, regulation) rather than to the parties themselves.
Oil and the Middle East: Kitco reported another tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, and WTI settled above $104. Lately, higher oil has fed inflation and rate-hike worries, and that has weighed on gold rather than lifting it as a safe haven. Chandler sees room for gold to drop toward $3,750–$3,850 if it sets new yearly lows and sees no sign of capitulation yet.^{Bannockburn Global Forex (Marc Chandler)}
Central banks abroad: Hikes by the RBA or BoE would add to a global tightening tone that bond markets, and so gold and growth stocks, are already reacting to.

Tonight in Asia

CME equity-index and gold futures reopen at 5:00 PM CT, the first trade since Friday's tech selloff.
Asian chip and tech suppliers are the first test of whether Friday's semiconductor slide carries over.
The RBA announces its decision and new forecasts at 2:30 PM Sydney time Tuesday, which is 9:30 PM CT Monday.
Tokyo markets are closed Tuesday for Culture Day.
This was written before the Asia open. We will cover the actual open in Monday's morning Brief.

What we're watching

Whether Friday's wage figure (+0.3% expected) confirms or eases the Fed's inflation worry.
AI capital-spending guidance from Apple, AMD, Arm and Qualcomm after last week's misses.
Gold near a one-year low with oil above $100: the gap between bearish Wall Street and bullish Main Street in Kitco's survey.

The short version (the what and the result)

The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% last week with two votes for a hike, and before the decision markets were pricing about a 75% chance of a December hike.
The week brings Apple and Palantir earnings (Mon), the midterms and AMD (Tue), the BoE (Thu) and the October jobs report (Fri, 7:30 AM CT, +55K expected).
The Nasdaq fell 2.86% Friday and about 5% in October, its worst month since March 2025, and the S&P 500 fell 1.82%.
Gold fell 3.7% on the week to about $3,875, near a one-year low, while WTI settled above $104.