Futures bounce after Friday's tech rout as oil slides on Iran talks; ISM and Apple on deck before Tuesday's midterms

Explain terms

The one thing that matters today

Oil fell about 4% overnight on renewed hopes for talks aimed at ending the war with Iran, with Iranian negotiators meeting Qatari mediators in Doha. Iran's top diplomat said a proposal under discussion could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the US meets several conditions, and said no direct US-Iran talks were taking place.

Oil is the thread tying our three markets together this morning. Cheaper crude eases inflation worries, which matters because the Fed is openly debating more rate hikes. That relief is helping both stock futures and gold bounce after a rough Friday. The open question is whether diplomacy holds, because the talks are conditional and nothing has been agreed.

Before (overnight)

Friday's damage. US stocks had their worst day since June on Friday: the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, the Nasdaq 2.9% and the Dow 1.1%, as investors sold tech and AI-related shares after Alphabet and Amazon results raised doubts about how fast AI spending pays off. The Nasdaq Composite lost about 5% in October.

US futures. As of 4:15 AM CT, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 0.89%, S&P 500 E-minis up 0.52% and Dow E-minis up 0.52%, per Reuters. Reuters said AI stocks were catching their breath after October's selloff, while worries remain that debt-funded AI spending will get harder to justify as borrowing costs rise.

Asia. Mixed, per AP, as of early Monday:

South Korea's Kospi rose 2.2%, led by chipmakers (SK Hynix +3.8%, Samsung Electronics +1.8%).
Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.3% after giving up early gains; Kioxia fell 15.8% on a disappointing forecast.
Taiwan's Taiex fell 0.7%, with TSMC down 1.7%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite 1.1%.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6%.
China's factory activity returned to contraction in October, and Chinese media reported that the central bank and securities regulator were due to meet financial institutions Monday to discuss support for the capital market.

"Some cracks have appeared" in the AI trade. "Increasingly, the question will be whether all the money being spent on it can generate adequate financial returns."^{UBS Global Research (Sunil Tirumalai)}

Europe. The STOXX 600 was down 0.3% at 645.04 at 2:13 AM CT, per Reuters, as investors weighed the Middle East talks. French train maker Alstom tumbled 27% after cutting its forecasts, citing execution problems on a train platform in Germany.

Oil. Brent was down 3.9% at $109.01 a barrel and US crude down 4.1% at $99.82, per AP's latest update.

Gold. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $3,903.90 an ounce and December gold futures 0.4% to $3,913.20 at 1:57 AM CT, per Reuters. That follows a 3.5% drop on Friday to the lowest level since October 2025, below $4,000. Reuters said Friday's tech selloff forced some investors to sell safe-haven assets, including gold, to cover margin calls. Spot silver gained 2.5% to $50.33.

"We're just getting a bounce after the selloff, along with oil prices coming off to start the week."^{Kyle Rodda, Capital.com}

Gold "faces a difficult near-term environment in which technical selling and liquidity concerns are overshadowing" its longer-term appeal.^{Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank}

Rates and currencies. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday near 4.93%. The dollar was at 157.64 yen and the euro at $1.1236, per AP.

The calendar

Times are US Central (CT). Daylight saving time ended Sunday, so CT is now one hour behind ET.

Time CT	Event	Consensus	Why it matters
9:00 AM	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	54.7 (prior 54.5)	First big read on the economy this week
9:00 AM	ISM prices paid (Oct)	77.5 (prior 77.9)	Inflation pressure in factories, which the Fed is watching
9:00 AM	Construction spending (Sep)	+0.5% m/m (prior +0.9%)	Building activity
After the close (call 4:00 PM)	Apple fiscal Q4 results	EPS $1.98, revenue $113.27B	One of the heaviest weights in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500
After the close	Palantir Q3 results	EPS $0.41, revenue $2.18B	AI sentiment after last week
Today	Also reporting: Vertex, Marriott, Williams, Diamondback, ON Semiconductor, Roku and others	—	Chip and AI sentiment

Rest of the week (CT): US midterm elections Tuesday, with results arriving overnight into Wednesday; Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement Wednesday; the October jobs report Friday at 7:30 AM.

What's priced in

The Fed held its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike. The statement said "Inflation remains elevated." Three Fed officials argued on Friday for more rate hikes to fight high inflation, per Reuters.

CME FedWatch showed about a 73% chance of a hike at the December meeting early Monday, per Reuters.

ISM manufacturing is expected at 54.7, with prices paid at 77.5, per Yahoo Finance's consensus. With prices paid in the high 70s, the inflation component may get as much attention as the headline today, given how much the hike debate rests on inflation.

"Midterm elections tend to be unfavourable events for the party in power." "In short, gridlock may be good, and it certainly isn't unusual."^{Janus Henderson Investors (Seth Meyer)} We report the market reaction to the election only, and we cover it neutrally.

What could move NQ, ES and gold (general tendencies, not predictions)

Iran headlines and oil: In general, falling oil tends to ease inflation fears and support stocks, while a breakdown in talks tends to do the reverse. Gold has lately traded with oil and rate expectations rather than as a pure safe haven.
ISM prices paid: A hotter-than-expected inflation reading tends to push yields and hike expectations up, which has historically weighed on growth-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and on non-yielding gold. A softer reading tends to work the other way.
Apple after the bell: Apple's weight in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 means its after-hours reaction can move NQ and ES futures overnight. After last week's AI-related selloff, guidance may matter as much as the quarter itself.
Positioning into Tuesday: Ahead of a major scheduled event like the midterms, markets often see lighter conviction and can react sharply to the outcome either way.

What we're watching

Whether this morning's tech bounce holds through the cash session.
Whether gold can hold near $3,900 after Friday's forced selling, or whether rate-hike pricing keeps a lid on it.
Treasury's refunding announcement on Wednesday, and what it means for long-term yields, which have been high.
Any fresh Fed comments on the December hike debate before Friday's jobs report.

The short version (the what and the result)

NQ futures were up about 0.9% and ES about 0.5% early Monday after Friday's worst day since June.
Oil fell about 4% on hopes for US-Iran diplomacy; gold bounced about 0.8% off a one-year low.
ISM manufacturing is at 9:00 AM CT and Apple reports after the close, a day before the US midterm elections.
CME FedWatch put the odds of a December Fed hike at about 73% early Monday.