Futures Are Bouncing Back. Nvidia Isn't.

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The one thing that matters today

Nvidia shares fell 4.5% in premarket trading after its board launched an investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort, Reuters reported. The rest of the market was firmer: at 5:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 0.73%, S&P 500 E-minis up 0.40% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis up 0.21%. Some chipmakers also slipped premarket, with Intel, Marvell Technology and Qualcomm down between 0.50% and 1.21%, Reuters said.

Our read

Here's what jumps out this morning: the buyers are back, they're just walking right past the AI names. Look at the gap between Dow futures and Nasdaq futures. The Nvidia news is about the CEO, not about anyone buying fewer chips, but it lands in the same week CPI could shift bets on a December rate hike. So tech needs two things to go its way in two days.

Before (overnight)

Asia rebounded: Japan's Nikkei rose more than 2%, Taiwan's benchmark rose almost 5% after its steepest weekly drop in two decades, and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.25%, Reuters reported.
European shares eked out modest gains, and MSCI's World Stock Index was up 0.4%, holding above the six-month lows hit last week, Reuters said.
Brent crude fell 2% to $96.29 a barrel after President Trump said Sunday he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran as long as talks progress, Reuters reported.
China's factory-gate prices rose 5.7% from a year earlier in October, above the 5.3% Reuters poll forecast and the fastest pace in nearly 4-1/2 years, while consumer prices rose 0.7%, just under the 0.8% expected, China's statistics bureau said, Reuters reported.
China effectively extended its trade truce with the US by two months, keeping an additional 24% tariff on US goods suspended while a 10% tariff remains, Reuters reported. Presidents Xi and Trump are expected to meet at the APEC summit in China next week.
President Trump called Huang "honorable" on Sunday and said he had not discussed the allegations with him, Reuters reported.

The calendar

Time CT	Event	Consensus	Why it matters
7:40 AM	Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on community banking	—	First Fed voice of CPI week
8:30 AM	US stock market opens	—	First cash session for Nvidia since the board's probe
Midday	3-year Treasury note auction	—	Demand for US debt with a December hike priced in
Today	KKR and Constellation Energy results	—	Constellation is tied to AI power demand
Tue 7:30 AM	October CPI	Headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.2% m/m (Bloomberg survey)	The week's main event; no yearly rate for most indexes

What's priced in

Money markets price in roughly an 80% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike in December after Friday's jobs report showed 165,000 jobs added, Reuters reported. Of the 335 S&P 500 companies that had reported as of Thursday, 82.4% beat earnings estimates, according to LSEG's Tajinder Dhillon, Reuters said.

"The AI correction in equities could have much further to run," Mathews wrote, adding: "One further risk would be any concrete sign that the hyperscalers were paring back capital expenditures."^{Thomas Mathews, Capital Economics} "For now, the repercussions across the wider chip industry look relatively limited although the scandal could disrupt the tech rebound."^{Susannah Streeter, Wealth Club}

What could move NQ, ES and gold (general tendencies, not predictions)

Nvidia is one of the largest weights in the Nasdaq 100, so its moves at the open tend to set the tone for NQ more than for ES or the Dow.
Lower oil tends to ease inflation worries ahead of CPI, which can take some pressure off yields. A firmer read from Fed speakers tends to do the opposite.
Gold tends to track the dollar and rate-hike bets this week; tomorrow's CPI is the bigger test for both.

What we're watching

Does Nvidia's 4.5% drop stick once regular trading starts at 8:30, or fade? And do the other chipmakers get dragged along?
Bowman speaks at 7:40. Anything she says about December gets extra attention the day before CPI.
Asia had a big bounce overnight. Does it reach US tech, or stay with the Dow?

The short version (the what and the result)

Nvidia fell 4.5% premarket as its board investigates CEO Jensen Huang; Dow futures led a broader rebound (Reuters).
Asia rallied, with the Nikkei up over 2% and Taiwan up almost 5%; Brent fell 2% on Trump's Iran comments.
China extended its trade truce with the US by two months; October CPI is tomorrow at 7:30 AM CT.