CoreWeave Flips the Mood, and Nasdaq Futures Jump

New here? Every line is marked as a fact, a quote or our read. How to read a Brief · Tap Explain terms for quick definitions.

Explain termsTurn on to see quick definitions

The one thing that matters today

Nasdaq 100 E-minis climbed 1.67% and S&P 500 E-minis rose 0.74% at 4:04 a.m. CT, after strong results from CoreWeave allowed investors to look past fears of excessive AI spending, Reuters reported. CoreWeave said it would become profitable on an adjusted basis in the first half of 2028, and its stock jumped more than 10% premarket, Reuters said.

Our read

Here's what jumps out: yesterday was about rates, this morning is about AI, and AI is winning the opening round. Nothing about the Fed changed overnight; traders still see a December hike as a lock. What changed is that a battered AI name showed a path to profit, and Reuters says that let investors look past AI spending fears.

Before (overnight)

The move widened before dawn: as of 5:31 AM CT, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.92% and S&P 500 futures up 0.87% (Yahoo Finance data).
Nvidia shares rose 4% premarket after two days of steep losses, Reuters reported. Other chipmakers bounced too, with Marvell Technology and Micron up nearly 7% each.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares jumped 1.5%, helped by a 2.6% rise in South Korea and a 3.6% increase in Taiwan; Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.3%, Reuters reported.
The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, within striking distance of its August record, Reuters reported.
Oil rose about 1% from two-month lows after Iran's security chief said no enriched nuclear material would leave the country: Brent was up 1.4% at $92.77 at 3:34 a.m. CT, Reuters reported.
Gold futures were up 0.76% at $4,060.70 as of 5:31 AM CT (Yahoo Finance data).

The calendar

Correction (Nov 11, 3:30 PM CT): An earlier version listed the official weekly crude inventory data as due later today. It was delayed a day by the Veterans Day holiday and is due Thursday, Reuters reported.

Time CT	Event	Consensus	Why it matters
All day	US bond market closed for Veterans Day	—	No cash Treasury trading; stocks trade as usual
8:30 AM	US stock market opens	—	First cash test of the CoreWeave bounce
Thu	Weekly US crude inventories (official data)	—	Delayed a day by the Veterans Day holiday, Reuters said. Market sources citing API data put the build at 9 million barrels
Fri 7:30 AM	US October PPI	—	Next inflation read after Tuesday's hot CPI

What's priced in

Traders see a December hike as a certainty, with an 11.5% chance of a half-percentage-point increase, according to the CME FedWatch tool, Reuters reported.

"While a December rate hike now appears almost fully priced in, the bigger concern is that investors may have underestimated how much further the Fed will need to tighten."^{Daniela Hathorn, Capital.com} "The results confirm that demand for AI is still very strong. However, CoreWeave still faces significant questions over the sustainability of its debt burden."^{Alberto Conca, LFG+ZEST}

What could move NQ, ES and gold (general tendencies, not predictions)

A big premarket bounce in tech tends to get tested at the open, when cash trading starts.
With the cash bond market closed for the holiday, Fed comments are one of the few rate signals today.
Higher oil tends to revive inflation worries, which is one thing that could cool the AI mood.

What we're watching

Does the CoreWeave bounce hold once the cash market opens, or does tech give some back?
Nvidia is bouncing after two rough days. Is it relief, or a turn?
Oil is back up. Does it start eating into the good mood before Friday's PPI?

The short version (the what and the result)

Nasdaq 100 futures +1.92%, S&P 500 futures +0.87% (5:31 AM CT, Yahoo Finance data) after CoreWeave's results eased AI spending fears (Reuters).
Nvidia +4% premarket; Asia and Europe higher (Reuters).
Bond market closed for Veterans Day; oil up about 1%; PPI on Friday.