Hot CPI, Hawkish Fed Talk, and Nvidia Takes Another Hit

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What happened today

The S&P 500 closed down 0.38% at 7,520.93, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.74% at 25,065.88 and the Dow down 0.30% at 52,231.89, Yahoo Finance data showed. Nvidia closed down 5.47% at $168.89. Gold futures were down 1.82% at $4,039.70 as of 3:00 PM CT. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.983% at 1:59 PM CT, up from 4.864% on Monday (Yahoo Finance data).

Our read

Here's what jumps out: the number itself wasn't the shock. A third straight 0.3% core reading was the shock, because it hit the exact line Waller drew overnight. A December hike is now treated as done, and the real debate moved to how big. That's why yields jumped and gold, which pays no interest, fell even as oil got cheaper.

The news, then the reaction

October CPI

Before: Economists polled by Reuters expected core prices to rise 0.2% for the month; the Bloomberg survey had core at +0.2% too. Hours before the report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if core rose 0.3% or more, "a 50-basis-point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting," Reuters reported.
The news: At 7:30 AM CT, BLS said core CPI rose 0.3% in October, as it did in September and August, and all-items CPI rose 0.4%. BLS did not publish 12-month changes for indexes missing October 2025 data.
After: Spot gold was down 2% at $4,054.90 shortly after the release, Kitco reported. The two-year Treasury yield, which tracks Fed expectations, was up 19.1 basis points at 4.738% in the afternoon and on track for its biggest daily gain since April 9, 2025, Reuters reported.

Historical data today, and the 5 before it

Released	Actual vs expected	Surprise	S&P 500	Nasdaq	Gold
TodayTue, Nov 10, 2026Oct 2026	Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2%	Hotter	-0.38%	-0.74%	Spot -2% to $4,054.90
Wed, Oct 14, 2026Sep 2026	Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2%	Hotter	-1.1%	-1.9%	Spot -1.7% to $4086.06
Fri, Sep 11, 2026Aug 2026	Core +0.3% m/m vs +0.2%	Hotter	+0.9%	+1.0%	Spot +1.6% to $4385.14
Wed, Aug 12, 2026Jul 2026	Core +0.2% m/m vs +0.2%	In line	+0.3%	+0.5%	Spot +0.9% to $4406.64
Tue, Jul 14, 2026Jun 2026	Headline +3.5% y/y vs +3.8%	Cooler	+0.4%	+0.9%	Spot +1.32% near $4052.80
Wed, Jun 10, 2026May 2026	Core +0.2% m/m vs not confirmed	not confirmed	-1.6%	-2.0%	Spot -4.26% near $4078.00

What happened, not what will. Closing moves for the day; sources on each row.What really happened →Full history →

Why this report mattersChapter 5, Prices start rising →Chapter 8, Markets react →

More Fed officials, same message

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said it "may be possible to move more rapidly" than a quarter-point hike, and that the Fed needs to raise rates by at least half a percentage point before pausing, Reuters reported.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he believes the policy rate is "fairly accommodative," Reuters reported.
Markets fully priced a rate hike of at least 25 basis points in December, per CME FedWatch, up from 84% on Monday, Reuters reported. The odds of a half-point hike were close to 15% mid-morning and about 10% in the late afternoon, according to Reuters.

Nvidia

Before: Nvidia started an internal probe into spy claims involving Chinese businesswoman Alice Huang, Reuters reported.
The news: The Information reported Tuesday that Huang's relationship with Chinese businesswoman Alice Huang facilitated the shipment of at least $7.5 billion of the company's chips through Chinese firms, according to Reuters.
After: Nvidia closed down 5.47% at $168.89 (Yahoo Finance data), after a 4.27% drop Monday. The broader Philadelphia semiconductor index was off roughly 1% in the afternoon, Reuters said.

Why it moved

Reuters said the hot inflation reading cemented expectations for a December hike and fueled concerns the Fed may move more aggressively.
The S&P 500 technology sector was the worst performer of the 11 major sectors, down more than 1% in the afternoon, Reuters reported.
Oil eased to two-month lows as US officials played down any imminent military action against Iran, Reuters reported. US crude was down 0.60% at $86.33 and Brent down 0.69% at $91.93 as of 3:00 PM CT (Yahoo Finance data).
"What kind of has the market spooked a little bit is this idea of, 'Well, we were already pricing in a December hike ... but maybe it's not 25, maybe it's 50 …'"^{Jason Ware, Albion Financial Group}
"There was not much in today's report to assuage concerns about ongoing inflation risks or the fact that the Fed will need to hike rates further to tamp down price pressures."^{Omair Sharif, Inflation Insights}

Tonight in Asia

CoreWeave is expected to report quarterly results after today's close, Reuters said. Asia gets a hot US inflation print and a jump in Treasury yields to react to tonight. Our Asia Open edition at about 6:30 PM CT has the details, plus CoreWeave's results.

Tomorrow

Time CT	Event	Consensus
—	No major US data on our release calendar	—

What we're watching

Does the half-point talk keep spreading? Logan and Waller are two voices; the Fed meets Dec 8–9.
CoreWeave tonight. Can it calm the AI cost worries, or add to them?
Nvidia has dropped two days in a row. Does it steady, or keep dragging tech while the rest of the chip group holds up better?

What it means for your money

October's report showed unexpected jumps in the cost of auto insurance, public transportation and medical services, Reuters reported. When rate hikes are on the table, borrowing costs like credit cards and new loans tend to stay elevated. Cheaper oil is the one bright spot heading into the holidays.

The short version (the what and the result)

Core CPI rose 0.3% in October, a third straight month and above the 0.2% forecast; all prices rose 0.4% (BLS).
Fed officials Waller and Logan opened the door to a half-point hike; markets fully price at least a quarter-point in December (Reuters).
S&P 500 −0.38%, Nasdaq −0.74%, Nvidia −5.47% (Yahoo Finance data); gold futures −1.82%.